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CascadiaPrime Cognition - The implications of AI on employment and employment patterns


Artificial General Intelligence seems likely to alter almost every field of human endevour producing wide benefits for society. Concurrently it seems likely to produce accelerated change in the workplace altering both employment and employment patterns to such a degree that new public policy models may be necessary to maintain social cohesion.

There are very strong countervailing trends emerging. Rapid aging and declining birth rates in OECD countries may well lead to labour shortages and to taxpayer shortages. The later problem is going to call for innovative thinking in finance departments across the OECD and in China that has the same demographic problem. In a perfect world automation would exactly offset labour shortages due to aging but a perfect match of skills seems improbable. It appears likely that the rise in the application of robots in production will lead to reduced wages or reduced employment for low skilled workers for a long time and increased returns on capital leading to rising inequality. It may also lead to reduced demand for high skill "white collar" jobs such as radiologists. This change in occupational demand will call for a good deal of social innovation some of which may be AI supported. Employment "adjustments" will be localized with some regions being net winners and others net losers. Disparities between those benefiting and those losing will also vary by country. Those jurisdictions with progressive, "loophole free", tax systems seem likely to weather the coming social cohesion crises better.

AI could substantially enhance productivity with resulting lower consumer costs, increased overall standards of living, increased rates of economic growth and improved tax revenues.

Each jursidiction will face different adjustment challenges. Some jursidictions may not be able to support both trade adjustments and AIification (and Singularity related) adjustments. And some will not be able to win the fruits of AIification.

    
  G&M: Liberals see artificial intelligence as a path to reverse stalled growth (January 25, 2017)
  
  G&M: Artificial intelligence is the future, and Canada can seize it (January 7, 2017)
  
  McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) A Future that works: Automation, employment and Productivity (January 2017)
  
  Bloomberg The Robot Rampage - Graph comparisions by countries (January 8, 2017)
  
  HBR: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: DISRUPTING THE FUTURE OF WORK (January, 2017)
  
  US Congressional Report: US Congressional Report: Automation & vertical specialization in US manufacturing - Demassification, Vertical Specialization - capitial intense not labour intense (June 28, 2016)
  
  U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper: Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why? (December 2016)
  
  Speech given by Bank of England head Mark Carney: we must grow our economy by rebalancing the mix of monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reforms (December 5, 2016)
  
  Talk: Oxford Martin School: "Skills, education and work in the digital age" with Dr Craig Holmes (November 3, 2016)
  
  The future will have plenty of jobs. When human labor is a luxury good - productivity - paradox (October 24, 2016)
  
  IMF: Robots, Growth, and Inequality (September 2016)
  
  Jason Furman, Chairman, US Council of Economic Advisers: Is This Time Different? The Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence (July 7, 2016)
  
  White House's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) 2016 report - 83 percent probability that automation will replace workers whose wages are less than $20 an hour (February 2016)
  
  World Development Report: Digital Dividends (2016)
  
  McKinsey: Automation Potential and Wages for US Jobs
  
  Andy Haldane Bank of England, Labourís Share (The Impact of technological change) (November 2015)
  
  Oxford Martin: The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
  
  Erik Brynjolfsson: AI and Economics (January 2014)
  
  Steve Denning: The Jobless Future is a Myth (2015)
  
  MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  
  Brookings: Darrell M. West: What happens if robots take the jobs? The impact of emerging technologies on employment and public policy (October 2015)
  
  Tom Friedman in conversation on AI versus AI and other global macro forces (October 2015)
  
  McKinsey - No Ordinary Disruption: The four global forces breaking all the trends (May 2015)
  
  Top Deep Learning researcher Andrew Ng expresses concern about employment impacts
  
  Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics?
  
  Original article: Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics? (Summer 2015)
  
  Newsweek: An Unhealthy Bread and Circuses Society
  
  Baker Institute: Turing Robots: Income Inequality and Social Mobility (PDF)
  
  Fortune: 5 white-collar jobs robots already have taken (February 2015)
  
  Christian Science Monitor: Could a robot save your job?(May 2015)
  
  Quartz: Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025 (May 2015)
  
  Medium: Self-Driving Trucks:The imminent need for basic income in recognition of our machine-driven future (May 2015)
  
  The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?" OMS working paper by Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael A. Osborne (August 2013)
  
  Scientific American: How to prevent the end of economic growth - Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey (December 2014)
  
  Talk: Michael A. Osborne (Oxford University) keynote at the "Digitizing Europe" Summit in Berlin (January 2015)
  
   James Blessen: Innovative technology is displacing workers to new jobs rather than replacing them entirely (IMF, March 2015)
  
  OECD Counties face severe labour shortages and taxpayer shortages
  
  OECD Scenerios: What will our livelihoods be like in 2030?
  
  Canada's demographic time bomb
  
  Demographics, Geopolitics and Economics
  
  The Graying of the Great Powers - Demography & Geopolitics in the 21st Century (PDF)
  
  Ray Kurzweil - Exponential Finance August 2014
  
  CEDA Report: Australia's future workforce? (June 2015)
  
  Churchill Club Panel: Global Growth Trends & the Productivity Imperative
  
  Open Letter on the Digital Economy (June 2015)
  
  Research Agenda called for in Open letter on Digital Economy
  
  It now only takes on average 1.3 years for an industrial robot in China to pay back its investment, down from 11.8 years in 2008, according to Goldman Sachs
  
  More on Employment
  
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